The first round of the French presidential election has confirmed the new trend in international politics.
法国总统大选第一轮投票确认了国际政治中的一种新趋势。
In country after country, the most important political division is no longer between left and right — but between nationalist and internationalist.在一个又一个国家，最重要的政治分界不再处于左翼与右翼之间，而是处于民族主义者与国际主义者之间。The breakthrough year for the nationalists was 2016 — with Brexit in Britain and victory for Donald Trump in the US. But the French election suggests that France and most of continental Europe will stay on the internationalist side of the line.对民族主义者而言，2016年是突破性的一年——英国公投决定退出欧盟，唐纳德?特朗普(Donald Trump)赢得美国总统大选。但法国大选表明，法国以及欧洲大陆大部分国家将继续留在国际主义那一边。The contest between Marine Le Pen and Emmanuel Macron in the final round of the election on May 7 will be a classic contest between a nationalist and an internationalist. Ms Le Pen wants to pull France out of the European single currency, raise tariffs, strengthen frontier controls and crack down on immigration. Mr Macron is a fervent supporter of the EU and a believer in open trade and a liberal attitude to refugees.马琳?勒庞(Marine Le Pen)与埃马纽埃尔?马克龙(Emmanuel Macron)在5月7日大选最后一轮投票中的角逐，将是一位民族主义者与一位国际主义者之间的经典对决。勒庞希望法国退出欧洲单一货币，她想提高关税，加强边境管制，打击移民。马克龙则是欧盟(EU)的热情支持者，他信奉开放贸易，对难民持开明态度。The opinion polls — which accurately predicted that Mr Macron would narrowly beat Ms Le Pen in the first round of voting — now suggest that he will win a decisive victory in the final round of the election on May 7, gaining more than 60 per cent of the vote.如今，准确预测出马克龙将在首轮投票中以微弱优势领先勒庞的民调显示，马克龙将在5月7日大选最后一轮投票中赢得决定性胜利，获得超过60%的选票。Of course, there is plenty that could still go wrong for him over the next two weeks. Ms Le Pen is a skilled television debater. Mr Macron is a wealthy ex- financier and former minister — who is vulnerable to being portrayed as a member of the out-of-touch elite. He could yet be tripped up by a scandal or a faux pas. But the strong likelihood is that the polls will be accurate and that the internationalist candidate, Mr Macron, will win a clear victory.当然，未来两周也可能出现很多变数。勒庞是一名经验丰富的电视辩论者。马克龙曾是一名富有的金融家，还担任过内阁部长——他容易被描绘成脱离群众的精英的一员。他仍有可能因一起丑闻或一次失言而栽跟头。但很大可能是：民调是准确的，信奉国际主义的候选人马克龙将大获全胜。Because the Macron-Le Pen contest is part of an international ideological struggle, the outcome of the vote in France will be watched with intense interest in the rest of the world. The likely victory of Mr Macron will be greeted with delight in Brussels and Berlin, with disappointment in the Kremlin and the Oval Office — and with mixed feelings in London.鉴于马克龙与勒庞之间的对决已成为国际意识形态斗争的一部分，世界其他地区将怀着强烈兴趣密切关注此次法国大选的投票结果。如果马克龙获胜，布鲁塞尔和柏林将感到欢欣鼓舞，而克里姆林宫和白宫将感到失望——伦敦则是喜忧参半。Ms Le Pen campaigned on similar themes to Mr Trump — although her language was considerably more moderate than that of the US president. (The National Front candidate, for example, has never proposed a Trump-style “Muslim ban” on all Muslims entering the country.) The Le Pen family enthusiastically endorsed Mr Trump for the US presidency; and the US president, in turn, has dropped heavy hints on Twitter that he supports Ms Le Pen in France — and expected her to win. But while Mr Trump himself will be disappointed by a Macron victory — his national security advisers, who hold less eccentric views than their boss, are likely to be relieved.勒庞的竞选纲领与特朗普类似——尽管她的言辞比这位美国总统要温和得多。（例如，这位国民阵线(National Front)候选人从未提议特朗普式的、禁止所有穆斯林进入本国的“禁穆令”。）勒庞家族积极支持特朗普担任美国总统；特朗普则在Twitter上发出强烈暗示：他支持勒庞，希望她赢得大选。但是，虽然特朗普本人会因马克龙胜选感到失望，但他的国家安全顾问们（观念不像自己老板那么怪异）可能会松一口气。Russia’s disappointment at a likely Macron victory will be much more straightforward. Mr Macron was the only leading candidate in the first round of voting to support a tough line against Putin’s Russia. A Russian bank has also lent heavily to Le Pen’s National Front — possibly as part of the Kremlin’s investment in disarray in the EU.俄罗斯对马克龙可能胜选的失望将更直截了当。马克龙是首轮投票中唯一支持对普京(Putin)治下的俄罗斯实施强硬路线的领先候选人。俄罗斯一家银行还大举放贷给勒庞的国民阵线——可能是作为克里姆林宫投资欧盟乱局的一部分。The British reaction to a Macron victory will be a mixture of relief and apprehension. The government of Theresa May resists the characterisation of Brexit as a nationalist spasm — and emphasises the UK’s continuing support for free trade and a strong EU. But the problem for Britain is that the EU itself clearly sees Brexit as a manifestation of nationalism within Europe that needs to be dealt with very firmly.英国对马克龙胜选的反应将是喜忧参半。特里萨?梅(Theresa May)政府反对将英国退欧比作一次民族主义发作，强调英国将继续支持自由贸易以及强有力的欧盟。但英国面临的问题是，欧盟自身显然已将英国退欧视为欧洲内部民族主义的一次体现，需要以非常坚决的态度加以应对。In that sense, a likely Macron victory is both good and bad news for the UK. Mr Macron represents the strong and united EU that the May government claims to want. The difficulty from London’s point of view is that this strength and unity is likely to be expressed through a very tough line on Brexit — with a demand for a large, financial settlement from Britain and a resistance to any special deals for the UK, whether on free movement of people or financial services. A Le Pen victory, by contrast, would take Europe in new and dangerous directions — but could help to ease the narrow problem of Brexit, since there might no longer be an EU left to leave.在这个意义上，马克龙获胜（目前看来可能性很大）对英国来说既是好消息也是坏消息。马克龙代表了强大和统一的欧盟，一个梅政府声称想要的欧盟。从伦敦的角度来看，难处在于这种强大和统一很可能表现为对英国退欧持非常强硬的立场，要求英国支付高额“分手费”，抵制为英国安排的任何特殊协议，无论是关于人员自由流动还是金融服务的。相反，勒庞若获胜，将让欧洲转向新的危险方向，但可以帮助缓解英国退欧的小问题——因为欧盟本身可能都不复存在。In the wider European context, Mr Macron’s likely victory has to be seen in the context of setbacks for the nationalist right in recent elections in Austria and the Netherlands and their declining fortunes in Germany — where the populist Alternative for Germany party is falling back into single digits in opinion polls. A fresh mandate for Angela Merkel in September’s German elections looks ever more likely. Nationalist parties have taken power in Poland and Hungary — but the original core of the EU is resisting the nationalist tide.在更广泛的欧洲背景下，马克龙的可能获胜必须放在如下背景中来看：民族主义右派最近在奥地利和荷兰的选举中遇挫，以及他们在德国的衰落命运——德国的民粹主义政党，德国另类选择党(Alternative for Germany)在民调中的支持率正跌回个位数。安格拉?默克尔(Angela Merkel)在德国9月大选中获得连任的可能性看上去更大了。民族主义政党虽然在波兰和匈牙掌握得了政权，但欧盟的创始核心成员仍在抵制着民族主义潮流。In Brussels, the prospect of a Macron victory will be greeted as an opportunity to restart the Franco-German motor that has traditionally powered the EU. But euphoria would be misplaced. When it comes to economic reform and European integration, Mr Macron says all the “right” things. Whether he can actually deliver them is another matter. Breaking France out of a cycle of low growth, high unemployment and rising debt has proved beyond a succession of ostensibly reformist presidents — including Jacques Chirac, Nicolas Sarkozy and even the current president, Fran?ois Hollande. Mr Hollande failed despite appointing a dynamic young economy minister named Emmanuel Macron. Whatever happened to him?
布鲁塞尔方面，马克龙的获胜前景将被视作重启法德“发动机”——欧盟的传统动力来源——的机会而受到欢迎。但这种兴高采烈是一厢情愿的。每每谈到经济改革和欧洲一体化，马克龙满口都是“正确”的事情。至于他是否真的能实现，那是另一问题。事实上，一连串看上去主张改革的总统，包括雅克?希拉克(Jacques Chirac)、尼古拉?萨科齐(Nicolas Sarkozy)，甚至现任总统弗朗索瓦?奥朗德(Fran?ois Hollande)，都没能让法国走出低增长率、高失业率和债务不断上涨的循环。奥朗德虽然任命了一位年轻的充满活力的经济部长，却依然失败了，这位经济部长叫埃马纽埃尔?马克龙。他到底经历了什么？