The downgrading of the world’s second-largest economy’s sovereign debt rating should rank as an important event. But financial markets greeted China’s downgrade last week by Moody’s, the credit rating agency, with their version of a nonchalant shrug. Chinese domestic bond prices remained steady and Hong Kong’s main stock index actually rose during the week.
世界第二大经济体主权债务评级被调降应该算作一起重大事件，但上周评级机构穆迪(Moody's)调降中国信用评级后，金融市场却若无其事。中国国内债券价格保持稳定，香港主要股指上周竟然还上涨了。
But the non-event should not lull observers into complacency. China not only has one of the most highly leveraged corporate sectors in the world — with company debts equivalent to about 170 per cent of gross domestic product — it is also engaged in risky manoeuvres to cut an overgrown shadow finance sector down to size.但是，这起未引发巨大反响的事件不应让观察人士产生自满情绪。中国不仅有世界杠杆最高的企业部门之一——企业债务相当于国内生产总值(GDP)的约170%——它还在进行一项冒险行动，试图将过于臃肿的影子金融部门限制在一定规模内。Indeed, the market’s shrug says more about the structure of China’s financial architecture than it does about the very considerable risks that lurk within it. The truth is that foreign rating agencies have little influence over domestic bond investors and foreign ownership of Chinese bonds amounts to just $61.5bn, or 4 per cent of the total.市场的无动于衷更多反映的是中国金融体系的结构，而非隐藏其中的巨大的风险。事实上，外国评级机构对中国国内债券投资者的影响微乎其微，而外国投资者持有的中国债券合计仅615亿美元，占总数的4%。In any case, China’s outstanding foreign debt stood at a modest $1.42tn — or just 13 per cent of GDP — at the end of 2016. Beijing’s huge stash of foreign exchange reserves, which currently stands at $3tn, makes it highly unlikely that the country would default on its sovereign bonds.总之，截至2016年底，中国的外债余额为1.42万亿美元，仅相当于GDP的13%。中国拥有的巨额外汇储备——目前为3万亿美元——这使得中国出现主权债券违约的可能性微乎其微。Nevertheless, the one-notch relegation of Moody’s rating to A1 should encourage observers to delve into the strange nature of Chinese financial risk. Although the downgrade puts China on a par with Israel, Saudi Arabia and the Czech Republic, there is almost no equivalence between the challenges it faces and those of these countries.尽管如此，穆迪将中国的信用评级下调一级至A1还是应该会鼓励观察人士深入研究中国金融风险的奇特性质。虽然此次调降使中国与以色列、沙特阿拉伯及捷克处于同一信用级别，但中国面临的挑战与这些国家面临的挑战几乎完全不一样。The risks inherent in China’s system derive mainly from the regulatory disobedience of a state-owned phalanx of banks and companies that have reaped handsome returns from a booming netherworld of shadow finance. This twilight domain has tripled in size over the past five years to be worth $9.4tn, or about 87 per cent of GDP, at the end of last year, according to Moody’s estimates.中国金融系统内在的风险主要来自于大批国有银行和国有企业违反监管规定的行为，它们从蓬勃发展的影子金融领域中获得了可观收益。据穆迪估算，过去5年，影子金融的规模扩大了两倍，截至去年底已达9.4万亿美元，相当于GDP的约87%。In recent months, the China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC) and other official bodies have sought to re-impose Beijing’s authority by cracking down on a long list of irregular but commonplace financial dealings. Guo Shuqing, the CBRC chairman, has been quoted as saying he would rather resign than see the banking system become a “complete mess”.近几个月来，中国银监会等官方机构再次端出北京的权威，打击了一长串不合规但常见的金融交易。有报道引用银监会主席郭树清的话称，如果银行业搞得“一塌糊涂”，他宁愿辞职。But the crackdown is creating collateral damage. A squeeze on the money market, a font of shadow finance liquidity, has driven short-term interest rates higher, raising the costs of funding not only for irregular dealings but also for legitimate mid-sized banks and companies that rely on such funding to manage stretched balance sheets.但打击造成了间接损害。对货币市场——影子金融流动性的来源——的挤压已推动短期利率上扬，不仅提高了不合规交易的融资成本，合法的中型银行、以及依靠货币市场融资来管理绷得过紧的资产负债表的企业的融资成本也增加了。Bond market defaults are relatively new; the first one was permitted in 2014. But this year there have been 13 defaults so far, the most recent in late May when Dalian Machine Tool Group — one of the world’s largest machine-tool companies — failed to repay the principle and interest on debt issued.在中国，债券市场违约是相对较新的现象，2014年才允许出现第一起违约。但今年以来已发生13例违约，最近一例是5月底大连机床集团(Dalian Machine Tool Group)无力偿还所发行债券的本金和利息，该集团是全球最大机床企业之一。The potential for debt default contagion is huge, due to a widespread practise of companies guaranteeing other companies’ loans. Nearly half of the lower-rated companies in China have extended loan guarantees of more than 30 per cent of the value of their equity, according to Everbright Securities, a Chinese brokerage. Thus while the Moody’s downgrade may not signal a clear and present danger, it should alert investors to the myriad credit risks within China’s opaque economy.
由于企业间担保贷款的做法较为普遍，债务违约蔓延的可能性非常大。根据中国券商光大证券(Everbright Securities)的数据，中国近一半评级较低企业的贷款担保额超过自身股本价值的30%。因此，虽然穆迪调降中国评级可能并不意味着一场明显且迫在眉睫的危险，但它还是应当促使投资者注意中国不透明的经济中蕴含的种种信用风险。