Donald Trump’s first visit to Europe was awkward. Its aftermath has been explosive. Speaking at an election rally in Munich, shortly after the US president had returned to Washington, Angela Merkel came close to announcing the death of the western alliance.
唐纳德?特朗普(Donald Trump)对欧洲的首次访问磕磕绊绊。它产生的后果是爆炸性的。就在这位美国总统返回华盛顿不久，在慕尼黑一次选举集会上，安格拉?默克尔(Angela Merkel)差一点就宣告了西方联盟的死亡。
The German chancellor warned that: “The times in which we can fully count on others are somewhat over, as I have experienced in the past few days. We Europeans must really take our destiny in our own hands. Of course we need to have friendly relations with the US and with the UK and with other neighbours, including Russia. But we have to fight for our own future ourselves.”这位德国总理警告称：“正如我过去几天所体验到的，某种程度上说，我们可以完全指望其他人的时代终结了。我们欧洲人必须真正把命运掌握在自己手中。当然，我们需要与美国、英国和包括俄罗斯在内的其他邻国的友好关系。但我们不得不自己为我们的未来而奋斗。”Ms Merkel’s remarks swiftly made headlines. Richard Haass, who as president of the Council on Foreign Relations is the doyen of the US foreign-policy establishment, tweeted: “Merkel saying Europe cannot rely on others & needs to take matters into its own hands is a watershed — & what US has sought to avoid since WW2.”默克尔的发言迅速成为各大媒体头条。美国对外政策圈元老、外交关系委员会(Council on Foreign Relations)主席理查德?哈斯(Richard Haass)发推文称：“默克尔称，欧洲不能依赖其他国家，必须把事情掌握在自己手中。默克尔说出这句话是一道分水岭，这一幕也是美国二战以来一直努力避免出现的。”It is easy and appropriate to blame President Trump for this state of affairs. But despite her cautious phrasing, Ms Merkel has also behaved irresponsibly — making a statement that threatens to widen a dangerous rift in the Atlantic alliance into a permanent breach.这种状况很容易、也应该被归咎于特朗普总统。不过，尽管默克尔措辞谨慎，她发表这样的声明也同样是不负责任的——该声明可能会将大西洋同盟中的一道危险裂痕扩大为永久的决裂。The case against Mr Trump is easiest to make. His performance in Europe was disastrous. In a speech to Nato, the US president failed to reaffirm Article 5, the alliance’s mutual defence clause.怪罪特朗普的理由可以轻而易举地找到。他在欧洲的表现是灾难性的。在对北约(NATO)的一个讲话中，这位美国总统没有重申北约的共同防务条款——第五条(Article 5)。This was not an accidental oversight and sent a clear message that America’s commitment to the defence of Europe can no longer be taken for granted. That, in turn, risks encouraging Russia to test Nato’s defences.这并不是偶然的疏忽，而是传递了一个明确信号：不能再将美国保卫欧洲的承诺视为理所当然。反过来，这也可能鼓励俄罗斯考验北约的防卫。At a G7 summit, Mr Trump stood alone in his failure to endorse the Paris climate accord. And he was also widely quoted as calling Germany “bad, very bad” for the sin of selling too many cars in the US.在一个七国集团(G7)峰会上，只有特朗普没有支持巴黎气候协议。此外，他还说德国“很坏，坏透了”，罪过是在美国卖了太多汽车——这句话被广泛引用。Faced with all this, and with Brexit Britain, Ms Merkel may feel that she is merely stating the obvious in suggesting that Germany can no longer count on its American and British allies. Nonetheless, her speech was a blunder for at least five reasons.面临所有这一切以及即将退欧的英国，默克尔或许觉得，她暗示德国不能再指望其美国和英国盟友，只是在陈述一个显而易见的事实。然而，她的讲话是个错误，理由至少有五条。First, it is a mistake to allow four months of the Trump presidency to throw into doubt a Transatlantic alliance that has kept the peace in Europe for 70 years. It may come to that. But it is also possible that Mr Trump is an aberration and will soon be out of office.首先，容许特朗普四个月的总统生涯将保持了欧洲70年和平的跨大西洋同盟投入疑云之中，这是错误的。或许有一天跨大西洋同盟会陷入疑云。但也有可能特朗普是个异数，很快会走人。Second, the US president actually had a valid point to make about the failure of most European countries to meet Nato targets on military expenditure. Mr Trump’s behaviour in Europe was crass. But his argument that it is unsustainable for the US to account for almost 75 per cent of Nato defence spending is correct — and was also made by Robert Gates, defence secretary for President Obama. Given that Germany has been freeriding on American military spending, it is a little cheeky to blame the US for being an unreliable ally.其次，关于多数欧洲国家没有达到北约军事开支目标这件事，这位美国总统实际上说得在理。特朗普在欧洲的行为愚不可及。然而，他说美国承担北约近75%的防务开支不可持续，这个主张是正确的，奥巴马(Obama)总统的国防部长罗伯特?盖茨(Robert Gates)也曾说过同样的话。考虑到德国一直在搭美国军事开支的便车，谴责美国是不可靠的盟友有点厚颜无耻的味道。Third, by implying that the western alliance is now coming apart, Ms Merkel has compounded the error that Mr Trump made when he failed to endorse Article 5.第三，通过暗示西方同盟如今正分崩离析，默克尔使得特朗普未背书北约第五条的错误更加严重了。Both events will have encouraged the Russian government in its hope of breaking up the western alliance. That, in turn, makes Europe’s security situation more dangerous.这两件事都会鼓舞俄罗斯政府对打散西方同盟寄予更大希望。这反过来会令欧洲安全局势更加危险。Fourth, Ms Merkel was unwise and unfair to bracket the UK with Trump’s America. In the climate change discussions, Britain sided with the EU — not the US. Similarly, the government of Theresa May has been at pains to stress Britain’s commitment to Nato.第四，默克尔将英国与特朗普领导的美国归为一类，既不明智也不公平。在气候变化磋商中，英国站在欧盟(EU)这边，而不是站在美国那边。与此类似，特里萨?梅(Theresa May)政府一直在煞费苦心地强调英国对北约的承诺。However, if Ms Merkel’s government pursues the Brexit negotiations in the current confrontational spirit — demanding that the UK commit to vast upfront payments, before even discussing a trade deal — she risks creating a self-fulfilling prophecy and a lasting antagonism between Britain and the EU.然而，如果默克尔政府以目前这种对抗情绪开展英国退欧谈判——要求英国在还未启动贸易协议磋商前就确定巨额先期付款，她可能创造自我应验的预言，还可能制造英国和欧盟间持久的敌对。It is hard to see how the UK can be expected to see the same countries as adversaries in the Brexit negotiations and allies in the Nato context. So a really hard Brexit could indeed raise questions about Britain’s commitment to Nato — particularly if the US is also pulling back from the western alliance.难以想象，如何能指望英国把同一些国家既视为退欧谈判时的对手，又视为北约里的盟友。因此，太过艰难的英国退欧进程，真的可能引发对英国对北约承诺的质疑——尤其是假如美国也将撤出这一西方同盟的话。The final flaw in Ms Merkel’s approach is that it displayed an uncharacteristic deafness to the echoes of history. One of the truly impressive things about modern Germany is that, more than any other country I can think of, it has thought hard about the lessons of history, and learnt them with thoroughness and humility. So it is baffling that a German leader could stand in a beer-tent in Bavaria and announce a separation from Britain and the US while bracketing those two countries with Russia. The historical resonances should be chilling.默克尔处理方式的最后一个错误在于，它显示出对历史先例反常的置若罔闻。现代德国真正令人印象深刻的一点在于，它对历史教训开展了深刻反思，并彻底而谦卑地吸取了这些教训——其程度超过了我能想到的任何其他国家。因此，让人困惑的是，一位德国领导人如何会站在巴伐利亚州一个啤酒帐篷中宣布与英美的分离，并将这两个国家与俄罗斯归为一类。历史上与此相似的场景应该会让人不寒而栗。None of this is meant to suggest that Ms Merkel is on the same moral and political level as Mr Trump. The US president has repeatedly displayed contempt for core western values — from freedom of the press to the prohibition on torture and the support of democracies around the world.
所有这些都不等于暗示默克尔与特朗普处于同一道德和政治水平上。对于从出版自由到禁止刑讯逼供、再到支持全球民主等各种西方核心价值观，特朗普曾反复显示出蔑视。As a result, some have even proclaimed that the German chancellor is now the true leader of the western world. That title was bestowed prematurely. The sad reality is that Ms Merkel seems to have little interest in fighting to save the western alliance.出于这个原因，有人甚至已宣称默克尔如今是西方世界的真正领导人。这一头衔授予得太早了。一个令人悲哀的现实是，默克尔似乎对竭力挽救西方同盟没什么兴趣。