Over the past three decades, China’s economy achieved one growth miracle by means of another: the expansion of its cities through the migration of hundreds of millions of rural workers.
过去三十年，中国数亿农村劳动力进城带来的奇迹般的城市扩张，推动中国经济实现了奇迹般的增长。
But that trend is slowly reversing in China’s biggest cities, Beijing and Shanghai, which have announced policies to limit their population. Official figures released last month showed the capital’s residential population in 2017 shrank by 22,000 people.但在北京、上海等已宣布控制人口规模政策的中国一线城市，这一趋势正在慢慢逆转。上月发布的官方数据显示，2017年末北京常住人口比上年末减少2.2万人。The drop follows moves last year by Beijing’s local government to cap the city’s population. Officials have outlined plans for the capital’s population to stabilise at 23m “long-term residents” by 2020 to stop what authorities call “urban diseases”, arguing that its water resources could not sustain more people.去年，北京市政府实施了控制本市人口规模的措施。为治理当局所称的“大城市病”，北京官方确定本市常住人口规模到2020年控制在2300万人以内，称水资源无法维持更大的人口规模。Not all residents are equal. To meet its target, local officials have evicted thousands of migrant workers from the countryside who lack an urban hukou household registration permit. Mass demolitions of migrant dormitories over the freezing winter sparked street protests.并非所有居民都是平等的。为实现人口调控目标，北京市官员驱逐了成千上万没有北京市户口的外来务工人员。严冬时节大规模拆除外来务工人员的住所引发了街头抗议。“Beijing, like every city, is an ecosystem. It needs people of all kinds. All humans are equal and should be respected. Driving people out of the city is not going to be effective in the long run and may cause social unrest,” said Li Jianmin, professor of demographics at Nankai University in Tianjin.南开大学(Nankai University)人口学教授李建民表示，北京和所有城市一样，是一个生态系统；它需要各种各样的人；所有人都是平等的，应当受到尊重；从长远看，驱赶人口不会产生预期效果，还可能会引发社会不安定。The reversal in population growth is surprising given that China’s cities were built by migrants from the countryside. Between 1990 and 2010, 250m people migrated to Chinese cities. Beijing tripled in size, Shanghai grew by more than a half and the southern technology hub of Shenzhen expanded more than eightfold. The Pearl River Delta cluster around Shenzhen, which has become China’s electronics assembly heartland, grew out of almost nothing.考虑到中国的城市是由来自农村的外来劳动力建设起来的，此次人口负增长令人惊讶。从1990年到2010年，中国有2.5亿人迁移到了城市。北京的面积扩大了两倍，上海扩大了50%以上，位于南方的科技中心深圳扩大了七倍多。如今是中国电子产品装配业中心的珠三角地区，几乎是从一片空白发展起来的。Urban migration fuelled China’s economic boom, as the country’s export-led manufacturing economy and, later, ecommerce, siphoned workers from farms. The shrinking of the cities will have economic consequences, too. Users of ride-hailing group Didi had to wait longer for their rides when local governments started kicking out migrant drivers last year, and Beijing’s winter evictions caused delivery services to apologise for delays.中国出口导向型的制造业经济以及后来的电子商务都从农村汲取了大量劳动力，这些迁入城市的移民推动了中国的经济繁荣。城市人口规模缩减还将产生经济后果。去年，当各个地方政府开始驱逐外地司机时，使用滴滴(Didi)的用户不得不等待更长时间才能打到车，北京去年冬天的驱逐行动导致快递服务公司为延误而道歉。Unlike western cities, where the price of services has risen sharply with rent increases, the availability of migrant labour and cheap dormitories in China’s cities have made services such as cleaners and nannies affordable to the growing middle and upper classes. But the migrant evictions and demolition of illegal shantytowns are likely to change that.与各种服务价格随房租上涨而大幅上涨的西方城市不同，中国城市丰富的外来劳动力和廉价住宿，使日益扩大的中上层阶级可以负担得起清洁工、保姆等服务。但驱逐外来人口、拆除非法棚户区可能改变这种状况。“The cost of services such as deliveries and babysitting will go up for good, because as rent goes up, these workers can’t afford to live in Beijing,” said Hu Xingdou, an economics professor in Beijing.
北京的经济学教授胡星斗表示，快递、保姆等服务的成本将永久地上升，因为随着房租上涨，这些务工人员无法负担在北京的生活费用。“I think Beijing’s population decrease will continue, and will have a negative effect on the city’s development in the long run,” Mr Hu added. “It worsens the ageing population, leads to a low supply of workers in certain sectors and raises living costs.”他还说，他认为北京的人口下降趋势将继续，并将对北京的长远发展产生负面影响；这一趋势加剧人口老龄化，导致某些行业劳动力供应减少，抬高生活成本。